The international bestseller'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow_________________________What if we could improve our ability to predict the future?Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting mar...

Best Books of the Year – The Financial Times and The EconomistShortlisted for the Financial Times and Schroders Business Book of the Year Award**World expert Bent Flyvbjerg and bestselling author Dan Gardner reveal the secrets to successfully planning and delivering ambitious projects on any scale.‘Important, timely, instructive and entertaining’ – Daniel Kahneman, bestsell...

We are the safest humans who ever lived - the statistics prove it. And yet the media tells a different story with its warnings and scare stories. How is it possible that anxiety has become the stuff of daily life?In this ground-breaking, compulsively readable book, Dan Gardner shows how our flawed strategies for perceiving risk influence our lives, often with unforeseen and sometimes-tragic consequences. He throws light on our paranoia about everything from paedophiles to terrorism...

In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future – everythng from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, sh...

In Future Babble, award-winning journalist Dan Gardner presents landmark research debunking the whole expert prediction industry and explores our obsession with the future.In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; it then plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world’s fastest-growing economy by 2000; by 2000, the USSR no longer existed. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe—we all ...

Best Books of the Year – The Financial Times and The EconomistShortlisted for the Financial Times and Schroders Business Book of the Year‘Important, timely, instructive and entertaining’ – Daniel Kahneman, bestselling author of Thinking, Fast and SlowMegaproject expert Bent Flyvbjerg and bestselling author Dan Gardner reveal the secrets to ...

A SHIVERING OF WORLDSDeep in the Chalk, something is stirring. The owls and the foxes can sense it, and Tiffany Aching feels it in her boots. An old enemy is gathering strength.This is a time of endings and beginnings, old friends and new, a blurring of edges and a shifting of power. Now Tiffany stands between the light and the dark, the good and the bad.As the fairy horde prepares for invasion, Tiffany must summon all the witches to stand with her. To protect the l...

An obsessive psychopath must be stopped whilst Detective Superintendent Roy Grace also deals with a very personal mystery in Want You Dead, by award winning crime writer Peter James.Grace’s wife Sandy is officially declared dead after being missing for a decade, allowing him to marry the mother of his baby son. But Sandy’s disappearance is unexplained for a reason.Bryce Laurent doesn’t want his ex-girlfriend to move on. Terrified by Bryce’s dark si...