Mathematically, natural disasters of all types are characterized by heavy tailed distributions. The analysis of such distributions with common methods, such as averages and dispersions, can therefore lead to erroneous conclusions. The statistical methods described in this book avoid such pitfalls. Seismic disasters are studied, primarily thanks to the availability of an ample statistical database. New approaches are presented to seismic risk estimation and forecasting the damage caused by ...

This book introduces stochastic dynamical systems theory in order to synthesize our current knowledge of climate variability. Nonlinear processes, such as advection, radiation and turbulent mixing, play a central role in climate variability. These processes can give rise to transition phenomena, associated with tipping or bifurcation points, once external conditions are changed. The theory of dynamical systems provides a systematic way to study these transition phenomena. Its stochastic ex...

Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment is a vital text for solar energy professionals, addressing a critical gap in the core literature of the field. As major barriers to solar energy implementation, such as materials cost and low conversion efficiency, continue to fall, issues of intermittency and reliability have come to the fore. Scrutiny from solar project developers and their financiers on the accuracy of long-term resource projections and grid operators' concerns about vari...

Waves in Oceanic and Coastal Waters describes the observation, analysis and prediction of wind-generated waves in the open ocean, in shelf seas, and in coastal regions with islands, channels, tidal flats and inlets, estuaries, fjords and lagoons. Most of this richly illustrated book is devoted to the physical aspects of waves. After introducing observation techniques for waves, both at sea and from space, the book defines the parameters that characterise waves. Using basic statistical and ...

Global warming and human-induced climate change are perhaps the most important scientific issues of our time. These issues continue to be debated in the scientific community and in the media without true consensus about the role of greenhouse gas emissions as a contributing factor. Evidence-Based Climate Science: Data opposing CO2 emissions as the primary source of global warming objectively gathers and analyzes scientific data concerning patterns of past climate changes, influences of cha...

In the second edition of this user-friendly book, Olivier de La Grandville provides a clear and original introduction to the theory of economic growth, its mechanisms and its challenges. The book has been fully updated to incorporate several important new results and proofs since the first edition. In addition to a progressive treatment of dynamic optimization, readers will find intuitive derivations of all central equations of the calculus of variations and of optimal control theory. It o...

Stochastic Dynamics of Marine Structures is a text for students and a reference for professionals on the basic theory and methods used for stochastic modelling and analysis of marine structures subjected to environmental loads. The first part of the book provides a detailed introduction to the basic dynamic analysis of structures, serving as a foundation for later chapters on stochastic response analysis. This includes an extensive chapter on the finite element method. A careful introducti...

Recognising that the economy is a complex system with boundedly rational interacting agents, the book presents a theory of behavioral rationality and heterogeneous expectations in complex economic systems and confronts the nonlinear dynamic models with empirical stylized facts and laboratory experiments. The complexity modeling paradigm has been strongly advocated since the late 1980s by some economists and by multidisciplinary scientists from various fields, such as physics, computer scie...

Mathematics has become indispensable in the modelling of economics, finance, business and management. Without expecting any particular background of the reader, this book covers the following mathematical topics, with frequent reference to applications in economics and finance: functions, graphs and equations, recurrences (difference equations), differentiation, exponentials and logarithms, optimisation, partial differentiation, optimisation in several variables, vectors and matrices, line...

This pioneering graduate textbook provides readers with the concepts and practical tools required to understand the maximum entropy principle, and apply it to an understanding of ecological patterns. Rather than building and combining mechanistic models of ecosystems, the approach is grounded in information theory and the logic of inference. Paralleling the derivation of thermodynamics from the maximum entropy principle, the state variable theory of ecology developed in this book predicts ...

In the past decade, there has been a substantial increase of grid-feeding photovoltaic applications, thus raising the importance of solar electricity in the energy mix. This trend is expected to continue and may even increase. Apart from the high initial investment cost, the fluctuating nature of the solar resource raises particular insertion problems in electrical networks. Proper grid managing demands short- and long-time forecasting of solar power plant output.Weather modeli...

A solid introduction to mathematical modeling for a range of chemical engineering applications, covering model formulation, simplification and validation. It explains how to describe a physical/chemical reality in mathematical language and how to select the type and degree of sophistication for a model. Model reduction and approximation methods are presented, including dimensional analysis, time constant analysis and asymptotic methods. An overview of solution methods for typical classes o...