Low-income countries routinely experience exogenous disturbances�sharp swings in the terms of trade, export demand, natural disasters, and volatile financial flows�that contribute to higher volatility in aggregate output and consumption compared with other countries. Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries presents the findings of an analysis of a range of external shocks faced by these countries, beginning with a discussion of the impact of external shocks on macroeconomic grow...

In this note, the authors reexamine the issue of debt sustainability in a large group of advanced economies. Their hypothesis is that, when debt is in a moderate range, its dynamics are sustainable in the sense that increases in debt elicit sufficient increases in primary fiscal balances to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio. At high debt levels, however, the dynamics may turn unstable, and the debt ratio may not converge to a finite level. Such a framework allows the authors to define a “deb...

This collection of papers examines IMF-supported programs over the period 1995-2000 in both middle-income and low-income countries. In order to seek insights from a comparison across different types of programs, the sections entitled"Objectives and Outcomes," "Policy Formulation and Analytical Frameworks," and "Macroeconomic and Structural Policies" address a number of questions regarding the economic programs for which national authorities seek the IMF’s financial support: the specific goals...

This paper examines the various roles of IMF financing in crisis prevention. Emerging market economies that experienced financial crises in the past have been subject to enormous economic and social costs, highlighting the importance of crisis prevention. While the main defense against a crisis lies in a country’s own policies and institutional framework, the IMF can contribute to these efforts through its surveillance activities, provision of technical assistance, and promotion of standar...

Over the past decade, Indonesia has developed into an important regional and global economy, as well as an active participant in the G20. The chapters in this book document the substantial improvements in the quality of macroeconomic policy that Indonesia has achieved, while also clearly laying out an agenda of measures that should be taken to safeguard these gains and further lower vulnerabilities going forward. Rather than just demonstrating progress in key macroeconomic indicators, the ...

An essential account of the historic subprime mortgage crisis, from the Nobel Prize–winning economist and bestselling author of Irrational ExuberanceThe subprime mortgage crisis has already wreaked havoc on the lives of millions of people and now it threatens to derail the U.S. economy and economies around the world. In this trenchant book, best-selling economist Robert Shiller reveals the origins of this crisis and puts forward bold measures to solve it. ...

Prominent economists reconsider the fundamentals of economic policy for a post-crisis world.In 2011, the International Monetary Fund invited prominent economists and economic policymakers to consider the brave new world of the post-crisis global economy. The result is a book that captures the state of macroeconomic thinking at a transformational moment.The crisis and the weak recovery that has followed raise fundamental questions concerning macroeconomics a...

Japan’s weak economic performance in the 1990s has had implications not only for its own people, but for the world economy more generally, given Japan’s importance as a trading partner and supplier of capital. Therefore, it is essential that Japan unlock its growth potential. The IMF has worked with the Japanese authorities to identify the policies needed to bring Japan’s economy out of its recent slump. This book contributes to this ongoing debate, whose major topics include the need for an ...

This volume contains country experiences explained by policy makers and studies by leading experts on causes and consequences of capital flows as well as policies to control these flows. It addresses portfolio flow issues central to open economies, especially emerging markets.