The standard rules of probability can be interpreted as uniquely valid principles in logic. In this book, E. T. Jaynes dispels the imaginary distinction between 'probability theory' and 'statistical inference', leaving a logical unity and simplicity, which provides greater technical power and flexibility in applications. This book goes beyond the conventional mathematics of probability theory, viewing the subject in a wider context. New results are discussed, along with applications of pro...

In this book the authors describe the principles and methods behind probabilistic forecasting and Bayesian data assimilation. Instead of focusing on particular application areas, the authors adopt a general dynamical systems approach, with a profusion of low-dimensional, discrete-time numerical examples designed to build intuition about the subject. Part I explains the mathematical framework of ensemble-based probabilistic forecasting and uncertainty quantification. Part II is devoted to B...

For the first two editions of the book Probability (GTM 95), each chapter included a comprehensive and diverse set of relevant exercises. While the work on the third edition was still in progress, it was decided that it would be more appropriate to publish a separate book that would comprise all of the exercises from previous editions, in addition to many new exercises.Most of the material in this book consists of exercises created by Shiryaev, collected and compiled over the cours...

Rigorous probabilistic arguments, built on the foundation of measure theory introduced eighty years ago by Kolmogorov, have invaded many fields. Students of statistics, biostatistics, econometrics, finance, and other changing disciplines now find themselves needing to absorb theory beyond what they might have learned in the typical undergraduate, calculus-based probability course. This 2002 book grew from a one-semester course offered for many years to a mixed audience of graduate and unde...

From classical foundations to advanced modern theory, this self-contained and comprehensive guide to probability weaves together mathematical proofs, historical context and richly detailed illustrative applications. A theorem discovery approach is used throughout, setting each proof within its historical setting and is accompanied by a consistent emphasis on elementary methods of proof. Each topic is presented in a modular framework, combining fundamental concepts with worked examples, pro...

Now available in a fully revised and updated second edition, this well established textbook provides a straightforward introduction to the theory of probability. The presentation is entertaining without any sacrifice of rigour; important notions are covered with the clarity that the subject demands. Topics covered include conditional probability, independence, discrete and continuous random variables, basic combinatorics, generating functions and limit theorems, and an introduction to Mark...

Exploring Monte Carlo Methods is a basic text that describes the numerical methods that have come to be known as "Monte Carlo." The book treats the subject generically through the first eight chapters and, thus, should be of use to anyone who wants to learn to use Monte Carlo. The next two chapters focus on applications in nuclear engineering, which are illustrative of uses in other fields. Five appendices are included, which provide useful information on probability distributions, general...

This book presents various results and techniques from the theory of stochastic processes that are useful in the study of stochastic problems in the natural sciences. The main focus is analytical methods, although numerical methods and statistical inference methodologies for studying diffusion processes are also presented. The goal is the development of techniques that are applicable to a wide variety of stochastic models that appear in physics, chemistry and other natural sciences. Applic...

This text presents the two complementary aspects of thermal physics as an integrated theory of the properties of matter. Conceptual understanding is promoted by thorough development of basic concepts. In contrast to many texts, statistical mechanics, including discussion of the required probability theory, is presented first. This provides a statistical foundation for the concept of entropy, which is central to thermal physics. A unique feature of the book is the development of entropy bas...

This book provides a short and concise introduction to Bayesian optimization specifically for experimental and computational materials scientists. After explaining the basic idea behind Bayesian optimization and some applications to materials science in Chapter 1, the mathematical theory of Bayesian optimization is outlined in Chapter 2. Finally, Chapter 3 discusses an application of Bayesian optimization to a complicated structure optimization problem in computational surface science....

Presenting the first unified treatment of limit theorems for multiple sums of independent random variables, this volume fills an important gap in the field. Several new results are introduced, even in the classical setting, as well as some new approaches that are simpler than those already established in the literature. In particular, new proofs of the strong law of large numbers and the Hajek-Renyi inequality are detailed. Applications of the described theory include Gibbs fields, spin gl...

The self-avoiding walk is a classical model in statistical mechanics, probability theory and mathematical physics. It is also a simple model of polymer entropy which is useful in modelling phase behaviour in polymers. This monograph provides an authoritative examination of interacting self-avoiding walks, presenting aspects of the thermodynamic limit, phase behaviour, scaling and critical exponents for lattice polygons, lattice animals and surfaces. It also includes a comprehensive account...