A decade ago, computer scientist Douglas Hofstadter coined the term innumeracy, which aptly described the widespread ailment of poor quantitative thinking in American society. So, in What the Numbers Say, Derrick Niederman and David Boyum present clear and comprehensible methods to help us process and calculate our way through the world of “data smog” that we live in. Avoiding abstruse formulations and equations, Niederman and Boyum anchor their presentations in the real ...

“I am hard pressed to think of another book that can match the combination of practical insights and reading enjoyment.”—Steven LevittGame theory means rigorous strategic thinking. It’s the art of anticipating your opponent’s next moves, knowing full well that your rival is trying to do the same thing to you. Though parts of game theory involve simple common sense, much is counterintuitive, and it can only be mastered by developing a new way of seeing the world. Using a diverse arr...

A detailed guide to overcoming the most frequently encountered psychological pitfalls of investingBias, emotion, and overconfidence are just three of the many behavioral traits that can lead investors to lose money or achieve lower returns. Behavioral finance, which recognizes that there is a psychological element to all investor decision-making, can help you overcome this obstacle.In The Little Book of Behavioral Investing, expert James Montier ta...

From lotteries, opinion polls and insurance to worries about murder rates, natural disasters and terrorism, probability plays a major part in our everyday lives—a part that is frequently and needlessly misunderstood. Jeffrey S. Rosenthal, a math professor and improvisational comedian, comes to the rescue with this irreverent, bestselling exploration of the odds and oddities of randomness. Looking at such familiar topics as poker hands, e-mail spam, political elections and game shows, S...

WHAT ARE THE ODDS YOU'LL WIN THE LOTTERY?How long will your kids wait in line at Disney World?Who decides that “standardized tests” are fair?Why do highway engineers build slow-moving ramps?What does it mean, statistically, to be an “Average Joe”?NUMBERS RULE YOUR WORLDIn the popular tradition of eye-opening bestsellers like Freakonomics, The ...

In the midst of the most serious financial upheaval since the Great Depression, legendary financier George Soros explores the origins of the crisis and its implications for the future. Soros, whose breadth of experience in financial markets is unrivaled, places the current crisis in the context of decades of study of how individuals and institutions handle the boom and bust cycles that now dominate global economic activity. "This is the worst financial crisis since the 1930s," writes Soros...

Everyone who's had to get to grips with chance knows how tricky even its simplest manifestations can be. Its workings are a constant challenge to common sense: a run of luck goes bad just when you trust it; expert predictions of everything from the weather to elections prove hopelessly unreliable; proven health advice turns out to be anything but.Award-winning scientist and writer Robert Matthews shows us how we can cut through the conundrums of chance. He gives us access to some o...

The revised and updated edition of the book that changed the way you think about tradingIn the Second Edition of this groundbreaking book by star trader Jeff Greenblatt, he continues to shares his hard-won lessons on what it takes to be a professional trader, while detailing his proven techniques for mastering market timing. With the help of numerous case studies and charts, Greenblatt develops his original high-probability pattern recognition system which...

People have been gambling, in one form or another, for as long as history itself. Why? Money, entertainment, escape and a desire to win are all traditional explanations. Arguably, however, these are secondary considerations to a higher order purpose: a craving for control. Gambling offers a means of gaining authority over the unknown, granting us a sense of control over uncertainty. Almost always that sense is illusory - gambling, including betting and investing, is essentially random - ye...

" Our objective in this book is to present an exposition of basic principles of statistics along with some indication of applications which satisfies the following ten commandments: The focus should be placed on a clear development of basic ideas and principles. The exposition of these basic ideas and principles should be streamlined so as to avoid having the undergrowth get in the way of the statistical forest. High priority should be given to the assumptions which underlie the applicatio...

Game theory, the formalized study of strategy, began in the 1940s by asking how emotionless geniuses should play games, but ignored until recently how average people with emotions and limited foresight actually play games. This book marks the first substantial and authoritative effort to close this gap. Colin Camerer, one of the field's leading figures, uses psychological principles and hundreds of experiments to develop mathematical theories of reciprocity, limited strategizing, and learn...

Today's top financial professionals have come to rely on ever-more sophisticated mathematics in their attempts to come to grips with financial risk. But this excessive reliance on quantitative precision is misleading--and puts everyone at risk. In Plight of the Fortune Tellers, Riccardo Rebonato forcefully argues that we must restore genuine decision making to our financial planning. Presenting a financial model that uses probability, experimental psychology, and decision theory, ...