The standard rules of probability can be interpreted as uniquely valid principles in logic. In this book, E. T. Jaynes dispels the imaginary distinction between 'probability theory' and 'statistical inference', leaving a logical unity and simplicity, which provides greater technical power and flexibility in applications. This book goes beyond the conventional mathematics of probability theory, viewing the subject in a wider context. New results are discussed, along with applications of pro...

This book contains S. S. Wilks' lessons on mathematical statistics, and will make an excellent addition to the bookshelf of anyone with an interest in the subject. Preface: 'Most of the mathematical theory of statistics in its present state has been developed during the past twenty years. Because of the variety of scientific fields in which statistical problems have arisen, the original contributions to this branch of applied mathematics are widely scattered in scientific literature. Most ...

In this book the authors describe the principles and methods behind probabilistic forecasting and Bayesian data assimilation. Instead of focusing on particular application areas, the authors adopt a general dynamical systems approach, with a profusion of low-dimensional, discrete-time numerical examples designed to build intuition about the subject. Part I explains the mathematical framework of ensemble-based probabilistic forecasting and uncertainty quantification. Part II is devoted to B...

An introduction to the mathematical theory and financial models developed and used on Wall StreetProviding both a theoretical and practical approach to the underlying mathematical theory behind financial models, Measure, Probability, and Mathematical Finance: A Problem-Oriented Approach presents important concepts and results in measure theory, probability theory, stochastic processes, and stochastic calculus. Measure theory is indispensable to the rigorou...

Statistical data are not always precise numbers, or vectors, or categories. Real data are frequently what is called fuzzy. Examples where this fuzziness is obvious are quality of life data, environmental, biological, medical, sociological and economics data. Also the results of measurements can be best described by using fuzzy numbers and fuzzy vectors respectively.Statistical analysis methods have to be adapted for the analysis of fuzzy data. In this book, the foundations of the d...

For the first two editions of the book Probability (GTM 95), each chapter included a comprehensive and diverse set of relevant exercises. While the work on the third edition was still in progress, it was decided that it would be more appropriate to publish a separate book that would comprise all of the exercises from previous editions, in addition to many new exercises.Most of the material in this book consists of exercises created by Shiryaev, collected and compiled over the cours...

Rigorous probabilistic arguments, built on the foundation of measure theory introduced eighty years ago by Kolmogorov, have invaded many fields. Students of statistics, biostatistics, econometrics, finance, and other changing disciplines now find themselves needing to absorb theory beyond what they might have learned in the typical undergraduate, calculus-based probability course. This 2002 book grew from a one-semester course offered for many years to a mixed audience of graduate and unde...

From classical foundations to advanced modern theory, this self-contained and comprehensive guide to probability weaves together mathematical proofs, historical context and richly detailed illustrative applications. A theorem discovery approach is used throughout, setting each proof within its historical setting and is accompanied by a consistent emphasis on elementary methods of proof. Each topic is presented in a modular framework, combining fundamental concepts with worked examples, pro...

Now available in a fully revised and updated second edition, this well established textbook provides a straightforward introduction to the theory of probability. The presentation is entertaining without any sacrifice of rigour; important notions are covered with the clarity that the subject demands. Topics covered include conditional probability, independence, discrete and continuous random variables, basic combinatorics, generating functions and limit theorems, and an introduction to Mark...

Exploring Monte Carlo Methods is a basic text that describes the numerical methods that have come to be known as "Monte Carlo." The book treats the subject generically through the first eight chapters and, thus, should be of use to anyone who wants to learn to use Monte Carlo. The next two chapters focus on applications in nuclear engineering, which are illustrative of uses in other fields. Five appendices are included, which provide useful information on probability distributions, general...

This book presents various results and techniques from the theory of stochastic processes that are useful in the study of stochastic problems in the natural sciences. The main focus is analytical methods, although numerical methods and statistical inference methodologies for studying diffusion processes are also presented. The goal is the development of techniques that are applicable to a wide variety of stochastic models that appear in physics, chemistry and other natural sciences. Applic...

This text presents the two complementary aspects of thermal physics as an integrated theory of the properties of matter. Conceptual understanding is promoted by thorough development of basic concepts. In contrast to many texts, statistical mechanics, including discussion of the required probability theory, is presented first. This provides a statistical foundation for the concept of entropy, which is central to thermal physics. A unique feature of the book is the development of entropy bas...