This book introduces a new way of analyzing, measuring and thinking about mega-risks, a “paradigm shift” that moves from single-solutions to multiple competitive solutions and strategies. “Robust simulation” is a statistical approach that demonstrates future risk through simulation of a suite of possible answers. To arrive at this point, the book systematically walks through the historical statistical methods for evaluating risks. The first chapters deal with three theories of probability ...

"A fascinating description of the kinds of people who interacted, collaborated, disagreed, and were brilliant in the development of statistics." —Barbara A. Bailar, Senior Vice-President, National Opinion Research CenterAt a summer tea party in Cambridge, England, a guest states that tea poured into milk tastes different from milk poured into tea. Her notion is shouted down by the scientific minds of the group. But one man, Ronald Fisher, proposes to scientifically...

“McCloskey and Ziliak have been pushing this very elementary, very correct, very important argument through several articles over several years and for reasons I cannot fathom it is still resisted. If it takes a book to get it across, I hope this book will do it. It ought to.”—Thomas Schelling, Distinguished University Professor, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, and 2005 Nobel Prize Laureate in Economics“With humor, insight, piercing logic and a nod to histo...

Making good decisions under conditions of uncertainty - which is the norm - requires a sound appreciation of the way random chance works. As analysis and modelling of most aspects of the world, and all measurement, are necessarily imprecise and involve uncertainties of varying degrees, the understanding and management of probabilities is central to much work in the sciences and economics.In this Very Short Introduction, John Haigh introduces the ideas of probability and different philosoph...

Robert G. Hagstrom is one of the best-known authors of investment books for general audiences. Turning his extensive experience as a portfolio manager at Legg Mason Capital Management into valuable guidance for professionals and nonprofessionals alike, he is the author of six successful books on investment, including The Warren Buffett Way, a New York Times best-seller that has sold more than a million copies.In this updated second edition of Investing: The La...

Modern statistics is very different from the dry and dusty discipline of the popular imagination. In its place is an exciting subject which uses deep theory and powerful software tools to shed light and enable understanding. And it sheds this light on all aspects of our lives, enabling astronomers to explore the origins of the universe, archaeologists to investigate ancient civilisations, governments to understand how to benefit and improve society, and businesses to learn how best to prov...

Chaos exists in systems all around us. Even the simplest system of cause and effect can be subject to chaos, denying us accurate predictions of its behaviour, and sometimes giving rise to astonishing structures of large-scale order. Our growing understanding of Chaos Theory is having fascinating applications in the real world - from technology to global warming, politics, human behaviour, and even gambling on the stock market. Leonard Smith shows that we all have an intuitive understanding...

What gives statistics its unity as a science? Stephen Stigler sets forth the seven foundational ideas of statistics—a scientific discipline related to but distinct from mathematics and computer science.Even the most basic idea—aggregation, exemplified by averaging—is counterintuitive. It allows one to gain information by discarding information, namely, the individuality of the observations. Stigler’s second pillar, information measurement, challenges the importanc...

This classic text has introduced generations of students to the economic theory of consumer behaviour. Written by 2015 Nobel Laureate Angus Deaton and John Muellbauer, the book begins with a self-contained presentation of the basic theory and its use in applied econometrics. These early chapters also include elementary extensions of the theory to labour supply, durable goods, the consumption function, and rationing. The rest of the book is divided into three parts. In the first of these th...

The second edition of this very successful and authoritative set of tables still benefits from clear typesetting, which makes the figures easy to read and use. It has, however, been improved by the addition of new tables that provide Bayesian confidence limits for the binomial and Poisson distributions, and for the square of the multiple correlation coefficient, which have not been previously available. The intervals are the shortest possible, consistent with the requirement on probability...

This lively and engaging book explains the things you have to know in order to read empirical papers in the social and health sciences, as well as the techniques you need to build statistical models of your own. The discussion in the book is organized around published studies, as are many of the exercises. Relevant journal articles are reprinted at the back of the book. Freedman makes a thorough appraisal of the statistical methods in these papers and in a variety of other examples. He ill...

The experimental approach in economics is a driving force behind some of the most exciting developments in the field. The 'experimental revolution' was based on a series of bold philosophical premises which have remained until now mostly unexplored. This book provides the first comprehensive analysis and critical discussion of the methodology of experimental economics, written by a philosopher of science with expertise in the field. It outlines the fundamental principles of experimental in...