This volume contains 28 papers by renowned international experts on the latest advances in structural reliability methods and applications, engineering risk analysis and decision making, new optimization techniques and various applications in civil engineering. Moreover, several contributions focus on the assessment and optimization of existing str

This is a unique book addressing the integration of risk methodology from various fields. It will stimulate intellectual debate and communication across disciplines, promote better risk management practices and contribute to the development of risk management methodologies. Individual chapters explain fundamental risk models and measurement, and address risk and security issues from diverse areas such as finance and insurance, the health sciences, life sciences, engineering and information...

This self-contained account of the statistical basis of epidemiology has been written specifically for those with a basic training in biology, therefore no previous knowledge is assumed and the mathematics is deliberately kept at a manageable level. The authors show how all statistical analysis of data is based on probability models, and once one understands the model, analysis follows easily. In showing how to use models in epidemiology the authors have chosen to emphasize the role of lik...

This lively and engaging book explains the things you have to know in order to read empirical papers in the social and health sciences, as well as the techniques you need to build statistical models of your own. The discussion in the book is organized around published studies, as are many of the exercises. Relevant journal articles are reprinted at the back of the book. Freedman makes a thorough appraisal of the statistical methods in these papers and in a variety of other examples. He ill...

The authors explain the ways in which uncertainty is an important factor in the problems of risk and policy analysis. This book outlines the source and nature of uncertainty, discusses techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment, and reviews a variety of simple and advanced methods for analyzing uncertainty.

This book provides an overview of three generations of spatial econometric models: models based on cross-sectional data, static models based on spatial panels and dynamic spatial panel data models. The book not only presents different model specifications and their corresponding estimators, but also critically discusses the purposes for which these models can be used and how their results should be interpreted.

One of the main aims of management accounting is to provide managers with accurate information in order to provide a good basis for decision-making. There is evidence that the information provided by management accounting systems (MAS) is distorted and the occurrence of biases in accounting information is widely accepted among users of MAS. At the same time, the intensity and the frequency of use of MAS increase, too. Consequently, the quality of the provided information is critical. The f...

This book focuses on identifying and explaining the key determinants of scenario analysis in the context of operational risk, stress testing and systemic risk, as well as management and planning. Each chapter presents alternative solutions to perform reliable scenario analysis. The author also provides technical notes and describes applications and key characteristics for each of the solutions. In addition, the book includes a section to help practitioners interpret the results and adjust ...

influence on the conclusions that result. A very “conservative” statistic requires very strong proof to demonstrate significant differences, whereas a “liberal” one requires less. “Yuck,” you say already, “I just want to know the answer. ” To this, I respond, when in doubt, use a conventional statistical method, one that can be agreed on and accepted by most authorities. These conventional kinds of methods will be presented in this book. As you gain experience, choosing statistical methods...

This book is devoted to the analysis of causal inference which is one of the most difficult tasks in data analysis: when two phenomena are observed to be related, it is often difficult to decide whether one of them causally influences the other one, or whether these two phenomena have a common cause. This analysis is the main focus of this volume.To get a good understanding of the causal inference, it is important to have models of economic phenomena which are as accurate as possib...

Nonlinear models have been used extensively in the areas of economics and finance. Recent literature on the topic has shown that a large number of series exhibit nonlinear dynamics as opposed to the alternative--linear dynamics. Incorporating these concepts involves deriving and estimating nonlinear time series models, and these have typically taken the form of Threshold Autoregression (TAR) models, Exponential Smooth Transition (ESTAR) models, and Markov Switching (MS) models, among sever...

This textbook systematically presents fundamental methods of statistical analysis: from probability and statistical distributions, through basic concepts of statistical inference, to a collection of methods of analysis useful for scientific research. It is rich in tables, diagrams, and examples, in addition to theoretical justification of the methods of analysis introduced. Each chapter has a section entitled “Exercises and Problems” to accompany the text. There are altogether about 300 ex...